2023 Elections Offer Snapshot of National Mood Ahead of 2024

Voters across the country determined abortion rights, legislative control and state Supreme Court seats in this year’s elections — offering a snapshot of the national mood heading into 2024. Ohio voters approved a constitutional amendment to ensure access to abortion, a major victory for Democrats who hope the issue will galvanize voters toward the party.... Voters across the country determined abortion rights, legislative control and state Supreme Court seats in this year’s elections — offering a snapshot of the national mood heading into 2024. Ohio voters approved a constitutional amendment to ensure access to abortion, a major victory for Democrats who hope the issue will galvanize voters toward the party next year. Democrats also gained control of Virginia’s General Assembly — a blow for Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) — and a 5-2 majority on Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court. Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves (R) and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) won their reelections following competitive races. The slew of statewide and local elections was seen as a litmus test for both parties ahead of 2024, even if President Biden and former President Trump — likely the top of their parties’ presidential tickets — weren’t on the ballot. Here are five lessons from this year’s elections for 2024, according to experts: Abortion has been a winning ballot-box issue for Democrats more than a year after the fall of Roe v. Wade — and the issue is expected to stay front and center ahead of next year’s elections. The Supreme Court announced this month that it will take up a case that could limit the availability of the abortion pill mifepristone, bringing the issue of abortion back to the court in the middle of the presidential election. “Don’t mess with abortion or you’re going to feel voters’ wrath,” explained Democratic strategist Christy Setzer, who’s worked on presidential elections and with groups like Planned Parenthood Federation of America. “I think we’ve seen that across the board in red states, in blue states, in pretty much everywhere it’s been on the ballot,” she continued. "As we saw from the Supreme Court’s decision to take up mifepristone decision, it is going to continue to be top of mind for voters across the country next year — not just in places where it’s explicitly on the ballot, like it’s going to be in Colorado, but for pretty much every woman who uses birth control, which is a lot of us." Colorado could vote on dueling ballot initiatives: Abortion-rights advocates are hoping to advance a constitutional amendment that would keep the state from banning abortion, among other efforts, and abortion-rights opponents are moving to ban abortion through pregnancy. Several competing indicators this year appeared to offer mixed messages for Democrats and Republicans during the 2023 elections, said Kyle Kondik, managing editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball. “Some of the indicators are kind of — are a little contradictory in that you know, you have [President] Biden in a horrible position polling wise and with his approval, but that doesn’t seem to be some sort of magic bullet for Republicans either because … I don’t think they perform particularly well in the 2023 elections,” Kondik explained. "Certainly you can say the same thing about 2022. That doesn’t mean that we should think of Biden as being in better shape than he is … I just don’t know," he added. Indeed, Democrats are faced with competing messages as their likely presidential nominee faces underwater approval ratings and concerns about his age, while the party has also overperformed in special elections — like the high-profile Wisconsin Supreme Court race earlier this year in addition to the general elections in November, particularly in Kentucky, Ohio and Virginia. One of the takeaways this year for Republican strategist Zack Roday is that the basics matter – including running good candidates and campaigns. “You don’t have to reinvent the wheel. You have to … simply look at where the electorate is, meet them where they are and then run good campaigns,” he said. Roday, who served as coordinated campaign director for Youngkin’s 2023 legislative effort, argued that while Virginia Republicans suffered a blow when Democrats held the state Senate while flipping the House of Delegates this year, he argued Republicans kept it close because of the candidates they ran. "I’d argue even in Virginia, if not for Gov. Youngkin and our good candidates and good campaigns, it could have been a really bad night," Roday said. "And we’re all disappointed in the end result, because … a lot’s at stake having majorities versus not having majorities, and yet we still — it’s been well written a couple of thousand votes, and so it was very, very close in the Senate, very, very close in the House." Roday also pointed to several lawmakers on both sides of the aisle who he believed were effective communicators and strong candidates, including Reps. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), Jeff Jackson (D-N.C.) and Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) in addition to House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.). Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, one of the two lead pollsters for Biden’s 2020 presidential campaign, said that one of the takeaways from the November midterms and this year’s elections is that it’s better to construct a choice for voters rather than a referendum. "I think the lesson of ‘22 and ‘23 was that you don’t want the election to be a referendum. You want it to be a choice, and the sooner you can construct a contrast, the sooner you can construct a choice, the stronger you’re going to be," Lake explained. "I think that’s really true for the presidential [election] where the choice between Trump and Biden is very, very different than the referendum on Biden, and the choice is very energizing to Democrats as well," she added. The 2024 election is increasingly looking like a rematch between Trump and Biden as the former president holds a commanding lead in 2024 GOP primary polls. But Trump is also beset with multiple indictments while Biden lags in polls. Lake said it’s important for Democrats to depict what a second Trump administration would look like and avoid “doing victory laps.” "In this case, just to be specific, you … remind voters and give them a vision of what Trump’s America would be like if he’s reelected. A nationwide ban on abortion, another tax break for wealthy people in the top 10 percent, etc. So that’s one thing that you do," Lake explained. "Two, you don’t spend your time doing victory laps or just talking about yourself. You talk about how you differ from your opponent." One lesson that John Couvillon, a Louisiana-based pollster who typically works with Republicans, is taking away from this year’s elections is that there is less split-ticket voting as voters are casting ballots increasingly along partisan lines. "Number one, partisan lines are hardening. In other words, you don’t really have that many voters who are swinging between voting one way for president and let’s say voting another way for governor or Congress or Senate," Couvillon said. The Louisiana pollster said that while there were some exceptions — for example, Beshear’s reelection in Kentucky after his Republican challenger Daniel Cameron wasn’t able to “overcome” the issue of abortion — "the Republicans dominated in all the other statewide races." Couvillon also pointed to Mississippi, noting that while Reeves underperformed during his gubernatorial reelection, "every other Republican statewide got near 60 percent of the vote, and my understanding is Republicans picked up some seats in the legislature." "In Louisiana, the Republicans overwhelmingly won every statewide race," he noted.